1 of 4
3 years ago
Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:45 am
BrutalBodyShots
Senior AdministratorGoodwill Saturation Technique Author
BrutalBodyShots has been gardening for over 2 years.
BrutalBodyShots has achieved the Garden Goal !!
BrutalBodyShots has achieved the Garden Goal !!
Exciting stuff to share with everyone! I believe that I've identified 7y6m as a major AAoRA threshold on TU4. I can't be positive yet of the exact threshold point, but will know in the upcoming months with certainty and will of course report back.
So, I just had an old account drop off my CR. My AAoRA dropped from 8y2m to 7y3m as a result.
I get my TU4 score monthly through my mortgage lender. Below you can see my December score and then my January score, roughly a month apart. The only difference aside from the obvious 1 month of aging is that the January score represents 2 less accounts (revolvers) with balances. I went from 5 revolvers with a balance to 3 revolvers with a balance. If that drop of 2 accounts with a balance represented an unseen score gain, it only means the loss pictured below from the AAoRA drop is even more pronounced than the 17 points shown:
See the second negative reason statement on the January pull above that bumped the "lack of recent installment loan information" from December down the list... "Length of time revolving accounts have been established." The cool thing is that my AoORA didn't change, so if you read the description of that negative reason statement it means I only have to look to AAoRA.
Now it comes down to determining exactly where the threshold point exists. I figure it can only be at 7y6m (most likely IMO), 8y, or with the slightest possibility at 7y8m. I know that sounds like an oddball potential threshold point, but I do remember TT once referencing it and it has stuck with me over the years. I don't know for which model he was speaking of, or if he even knew TBH.
The cool thing now is that I get to sit back and see when that score bumps back up, which will confirm the threshold point. My gut tells me it will end up being 7y6m since thresholds on other Fico models have been identified at 78 months and 90 months already, probably other Xy6m points as well. I'll have that answer in 3 months when I get my April TU4 score. If the points don't bounce back, I'll continue to monitor it month to month until they do.
All in all I'd say a threshold point being worth at least 17 points here on a mortgage score is pretty significant.- Tagline Goodwill Saturation Technique Author
- Classic 8 Scorecard CLEAN/THICK/MATURE/NO-NEW-REVOLVER
- Mortgage Scorecard CLEAN/THICK/MATURE/NO-NEW-ACCOUNT
- AoOA 266 months
- AoORA 266 months
- Date of Last Inquiry and/or New Account Opening May 23rd, 2022
- Garden Goal 24