Exciting stuff to share with everyone! I believe that I've identified 7y6m as a major AAoRA threshold on TU4. I can't be positive yet of the exact threshold point, but will know in the upcoming months with certainty and will of course report back. So, I just had an old account drop off my CR. My AAoRA dropped from 8y2m to 7y3m as a result. I get my TU4 score monthly through my mortgage lender. Below you can see my December score and then my January score, roughly a month apart. The only difference aside from the obvious 1 month of aging is that the January score represents 2 less accounts (revolvers) with balances. I went from 5 revolvers with a balance to 3 revolvers with a balance. If that drop of 2 accounts with a balance represented an unseen score gain, it only means the loss pictured below from the AAoRA drop is even more pronounced than the 17 points shown: TU4-810.jpg TU4-793.png See the second negative reason statement on the January pull above that bumped the "lack of recent installment loan information" from December down the list... "Length of time revolving accounts have been established." The cool thing is that my AoORA didn't change, so if you read the description of that negative reason statement it means I only have to look to AAoRA. Now it comes down to determining exactly where the threshold point exists. I figure it can only be at 7y6m (most likely IMO), 8y, or with the slightest possibility at 7y8m. I know that sounds like an oddball potential threshold point, but I do remember TT once referencing it and it has stuck with me over the years. I don't know for which model he was speaking of, or if he even knew TBH. The cool thing now is that I get to sit back and see when that score bumps back up, which will confirm the threshold point. My gut tells me it will end up being 7y6m since thresholds on other Fico models have been identified at 78 months and 90 months already, probably other Xy6m points as well. I'll have that answer in 3 months when I get my April TU4 score. If the points don't bounce back, I'll continue to monitor it month to month until they do. All in all I'd say a threshold point being worth at least 17 points here on a mortgage score is pretty significant.
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TU4 AAoRA threshold identified @ 7y6m!

1 of 4
3 years ago
Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:45 am
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BrutalBodyShots
Senior AdministratorGoodwill Saturation Technique Author
BrutalBodyShots has been gardening for over 2 years.
BrutalBodyShots has achieved the Garden Goal !!
Level27 Last INQMonday, May 23, 2022 Gardening For2 years, 3 months, 24 days, 13 hours, and 2 minutes Next Level in6 days, 10 hours, and 58 minutes on September 23rd INQ 1yr onTuesday, May 23, 2023 INQ 1yr reached1 year, 3 months, 24 days, 13 hours, and 2 minutes ago INQ 2yr onThursday, May 23, 2024 INQ 2yr reached3 months, 24 days, 13 hours, and 2 minutes ago Goal24 months Goal DateThursday, May 23, 2024 Goal Achieved3 months, 24 days, 13 hours, and 2 minutes ago
Exciting stuff to share with everyone! I believe that I've identified 7y6m as a major AAoRA threshold on TU4. I can't be positive yet of the exact threshold point, but will know in the upcoming months with certainty and will of course report back. So, I just had an old account drop off my CR. My AAoRA dropped from 8y2m to 7y3m as a result. I get my TU4 score monthly through my mortgage lender. Below you can see my December score and then my January score, roughly a month apart. The only difference aside from the obvious 1 month of aging is that the January score represents 2 less accounts (revolvers) with balances. I went from 5 revolvers with a balance to 3 revolvers with a balance. If that drop of 2 accounts with a balance represented an unseen score gain, it only means the loss pictured below from the AAoRA drop is even more pronounced than the 17 points shown:
TU4-810.jpg 105.34 KiB Viewed 118 times
TU4-793.png 156.55 KiB Viewed 118 times
See the second negative reason statement on the January pull above that bumped the "lack of recent installment loan information" from December down the list... "Length of time revolving accounts have been established." The cool thing is that my AoORA didn't change, so if you read the description of that negative reason statement it means I only have to look to AAoRA. Now it comes down to determining exactly where the threshold point exists. I figure it can only be at 7y6m (most likely IMO), 8y, or with the slightest possibility at 7y8m. I know that sounds like an oddball potential threshold point, but I do remember TT once referencing it and it has stuck with me over the years. I don't know for which model he was speaking of, or if he even knew TBH. The cool thing now is that I get to sit back and see when that score bumps back up, which will confirm the threshold point. My gut tells me it will end up being 7y6m since thresholds on other Fico models have been identified at 78 months and 90 months already, probably other Xy6m points as well. I'll have that answer in 3 months when I get my April TU4 score. If the points don't bounce back, I'll continue to monitor it month to month until they do. All in all I'd say a threshold point being worth at least 17 points here on a mortgage score is pretty significant.
BrutalBodyShots
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Re: TU4 AAoRA threshold identified @ 7y6m!

2 of 4
3 years ago
Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:52 am
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BrutalBodyShots
Senior AdministratorGoodwill Saturation Technique Author
BrutalBodyShots has been gardening for over 2 years.
BrutalBodyShots has achieved the Garden Goal !!
Level27 Last INQMonday, May 23, 2022 Gardening For2 years, 3 months, 24 days, 13 hours, and 2 minutes Next Level in6 days, 10 hours, and 58 minutes on September 23rd INQ 1yr onTuesday, May 23, 2023 INQ 1yr reached1 year, 3 months, 24 days, 13 hours, and 2 minutes ago INQ 2yr onThursday, May 23, 2024 INQ 2yr reached3 months, 24 days, 13 hours, and 2 minutes ago Goal24 months Goal DateThursday, May 23, 2024 Goal Achieved3 months, 24 days, 13 hours, and 2 minutes ago
Also worth noting is that if there is indeed a threshold at 7y6m, I do not believe that it's the final threshold. Back before I opened any new accounts this past year my top 2 negative reason statements on TU4 were length of time accounts have been established and length of time revolving accounts have been established. That was when my AAoRA was close to 10 years... perhaps diminishing returns with increasing AAoRA threshold points?

Also the signal strength of AAoRA may be different on a new account scorecard for TU4, where it is costing me more points now than it did previously.
BrutalBodyShots
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Re: TU4 AAoRA threshold identified @ 7y6m!

3 of 4
3 years ago
Fri Jan 14, 2022 1:01 am
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Birdman
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Level30 Last INQWednesday, March 2, 2022 Gardening For2 years, 6 months, 14 days, 13 hours, and 2 minutes Next Level in15 days, 10 hours, and 58 minutes on October 2nd INQ 1yr onThursday, March 2, 2023 INQ 1yr reached1 year, 6 months, 14 days, 13 hours, and 2 minutes ago INQ 2yr onSaturday, March 2, 2024 INQ 2yr reached6 months, 14 days, 13 hours, and 2 minutes ago
BrutalBodyShots wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:52 am Also worth noting is that if there is indeed a threshold at 7y6m, I do not believe that it's the final threshold. Back before I opened any new accounts this past year my top 2 negative reason statements on TU4 were length of time accounts have been established and length of time revolving accounts have been established. That was when my AAoRA was close to 10 years... perhaps diminishing returns with increasing AAoRA threshold points? Also the signal strength of AAoRA may be different on a new account scorecard for TU4, where it is costing me more points now than it did previously.
Excellent work, Rebel!! You actually gave us the reference points for the maximums on both revolver metrics. I believe it was nine years if memory serves for average, is it possible you were getting the code previously due to your oldest? If I recall correctly we just knew that the code was gone so apparently both were satisfied I’ll have to check the timer but I think it was nine years and 20, something like that. Either way I agree it’s probably 90 months. Yes there have been references for seven years eight months being the maximum, but I believe that was maybe a typo meaning 90 or 84 or inaccurate. We shall see. That was also for eight AAoA, IIRC.
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  • Score data EQ8-827; TU8-817; EX8-816
    EQ5-751; TI4- 800; EX2-814
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Re: TU4 AAoRA threshold identified @ 7y6m!

4 of 4
3 years ago
Fri Jan 14, 2022 7:39 am
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BrutalBodyShots
Senior AdministratorGoodwill Saturation Technique Author
BrutalBodyShots has been gardening for over 2 years.
BrutalBodyShots has achieved the Garden Goal !!
Level27 Last INQMonday, May 23, 2022 Gardening For2 years, 3 months, 24 days, 13 hours, and 2 minutes Next Level in6 days, 10 hours, and 58 minutes on September 23rd INQ 1yr onTuesday, May 23, 2023 INQ 1yr reached1 year, 3 months, 24 days, 13 hours, and 2 minutes ago INQ 2yr onThursday, May 23, 2024 INQ 2yr reached3 months, 24 days, 13 hours, and 2 minutes ago Goal24 months Goal DateThursday, May 23, 2024 Goal Achieved3 months, 24 days, 13 hours, and 2 minutes ago
Yes that was definitely 8 and AAoA. Back 3-4 years ago I was focused far more on AAoA than AAoRA.

I wish I had watched my TU4 score and reason codes more closely over the years. I was always so focused on 8 when I had access to a monthly TU4 score, something that not a lot of people have the benefit of. I won't make that mistake again and look forward hopefully to confirmation in early-mid April.
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