Percentage of U.S. Credit Scorable Population with a perfect 850 credit score

Latest Data is from an April 2019 review of credit profiles. "Calculations by FICO data scientists indicate that more than 232 million US consumers can be scored by the FICO® Score suite. That is 90% of the credit-eligible US population." ( August 2021 report using 2020 U.S. Census data. ) U.S. credit-eligible population was estimated to be 258 million in that same report. Current U.S. Total Population as of this posting [May 2022]: 331,449,281 [ census.gov LINK ] Source: FICO [ fico.com LINK ] (Using the data above, these are percentages of a roughly estimated 232 million credit-scorable people.) *Likely much lower, as the population estimates will be lower. A few highlights:

• "...the 850 profile has and uses credit with an average credit balance of ~$13,000 reported (mortgage balances excluded)."
• "Their average revolving credit utilization tends to be relatively low compared to their available credit at 4.1%."
• 10% of those with an 850 credit score had 1 or more inquiries in the past year.
• Approximately 25% of those with an 850 credit score had opened 1 or more new accounts in the past year.

Cool.

A few things with the highlight bullet points seem questionable though, IMO. If $13,000 is their average amount of reported revolving debt and their overall utilization averages around 4%, that would suggest overall credit limits to be an average of $325,000. I could see that being the case on the high end, but definitely not the average.

I also think that $13,000 figure is more on the high end and not the average and doesn't make a lot a sense for many profiles. For example when my scores were pinned at 850 for several years, it was with my utilization optimized or near optimized with overall reported dollars landing in the range of a few hundred to a few thousand, tops. If I were to report $13,000 in balances it would require me reporting a significant balance (crossing a threshold) on a single card, resulting in a score drop below 850, or if I were to spread that $13k across many/all cards I'd take a AWB hit, dropping me below 850. And I'm someone that's an outlier in terms of pushing my credit limits to their peaks by hammering away with SP CLIs on all accounts as often as possible, allowing me to keep my utilization percentages lower than probably 99% of others out there with an otherwise similar profile.

The last point I'd debate is the one that says 1 in 4 people with an 850 have opened an account in the last year. I personally believe based on scorecard reassignment with revolvers that this number would be damn close to 0, certainly not 25%. So, unless we believe the vast majority have only opened a loan (no scorecard reassignment) within the last year, I don't buy the 1 in 4 figure.

What does everyone else think about the numbers?

BrutalBodyShots wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 10:57 am Cool. A few things with the highlight bullet points seem questionable though, IMO. If $13,000 is their average amount of reported revolving debt and their overall utilization averages around 4%, that would suggest overall credit limits to be an average of $325,000. I could see that being the case on the high end, but definitely not the average. I also think that $13,000 figure is more on the high end and not the average and doesn't make a lot a sense for many profiles. For example when my scores were pinned at 850 for several years, it was with my utilization optimized or near optimized with overall reported dollars landing in the range of a few hundred to a few thousand, tops. If I were to report $13,000 in balances it would require me reporting a significant balance (crossing a threshold) on a single card, resulting in a score drop below 850, or if I were to spread that $13k across many/all cards I'd take a AWB hit, dropping me below 850. And I'm someone that's an outlier in terms of pushing my credit limits to their peaks by hammering away with SP CLIs on all accounts as often as possible, allowing me to keep my utilization percentages lower than probably 99% of others out there with an otherwise similar profile. The last point I'd debate is the one that says 1 in 4 people with an 850 have opened an account in the last year. I personally believe based on scorecard reassignment with revolvers that this number would be damn close to 0, certainly not 25%. So, unless we believe the vast majority have only opened a loan (no scorecard reassignment) within the last year, I don't buy the 1 in 4 figure. What does everyone else think about the numbers?

I suspect there is one factor that addresses most, or perhaps all, of your objections: auto loans.

Justaguy wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 11:49 am I suspect there is one factor that addresses most, or perhaps all, of your objections: auto loans.

Auto loans could only address the final point, which I mentioned (loans) in the final paragraph. Could 1 in 4 people with an 850 score have opened an auto loan in the last year? Possibly. Auto loans however have no bearing on the $13k in revolving debt referenced, $325,000 in overall limits, 4% in reported revolving debt, etc.

BrutalBodyShots wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 12:28 pm

Justaguy wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 11:49 am I suspect there is one factor that addresses most, or perhaps all, of your objections: auto loans.

Auto loans could only address the final point, which I mentioned (loans) in the final paragraph. Could 1 in 4 people with an 850 score have opened an auto loan in the last year? Possibly. Auto loans however have no bearing on the $13k in revolving debt referenced, $325,000 in overall limits, 4% in reported revolving debt, etc.

I don’t see it that way. In the first bullet point, the phrase “average credit balance” is qualified to exclude mortgage balances. I think that implies revolving and non-mortgage installment balances are included. It’s not 100% clear (and, to be honest, I am disappointed by the unpolished writing attributed to Mr. Quinn in the blog post), but if he meant credit card balances, it would have been easier to just say that, rather than mentioning the exclusion of mortgages. Your first post characterizes the first bullet point as being about “revolving debt,” but Quinn didn’t say that. He does mention revolving debt in the second bullet point, but you are assuming that 4.1% utilization number is calculated with the $13k figure from the first bullet point as the numerator. I don’t share that assumption.

They seem to always use averages for these reports, as opposed to the more meaningful median. Consider $6,000, $12,000, $18,000, and $100,000 for individual credit limits. Average is $34,000. Median is $15,000.

Good point, as outliers are always going to drive the mean while barely impacting the median.

I agree the first bullet point includes non-mortgage loans. That sets the second one apart. As for the new account within a year, I’m not convinced that one could not reach an 850 on a new revolver card. A nice old profile thick. If everything else is right sure. probably see more on a no revolver card.